The Bottom Line

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 THE BOTTOM LINE:  Gary P (GPI News)

Camp opens next month! 

      A lot has happened since last year's squad limped off the field last year after a dismal 6 and 10 campaign. Number one, the so-called head coach (Gregg Williams for those of you who have, thankfully, forgotten) and his band of fools (including Kevin Killdrive) were fired....finally. A new head coach was hired in Mike Mularkey who immediately built a staff that includes some of the finest coaches in football today. Some veteran Bills bid us adieu. Antoinne Winfield tested the free agent waters and got rich, Sammy Morris joined the enemy, Alex VanPelt's long tenure ended, Sam Gash was ignored and moved on and Ruben Brown finally wore out his welcome and was released. Troy Vincent was brought in to replace Winfield, and Chris Villarrial was tapped as Brown's replacement. The draft brought us a new speed wideout in Lee Evans and the possible QB of the future in J.P. Losman. Drew Bledsoe saw the writing on the wall and voided his current contract (which included a $7M bonus) and renegotiated a more reasonable, cap friendly contract with the club. Willis McGahee is officially recovered and participating in mini camps. And finally, out favorite RB and future hall of famer, Thurman Thomas, got himself busted for a minor wacky tabacky violation. All in all, an eventful and somewhat surprising off season. As I've always said, the off season is a lot more fun and interesting when your team sucks. Next time, we'll take a look at how the squad shapes up for this coming season.

Are the 2004-05 Bill's an Improved Team?

Part One: The Offense

Now that initial free agency is over and the draft and signing of UDFA's is complete, has the team been significantly improved? In part one, we'll investigate the offense.

Perhaps the most obvious problem last season was at the QB position. Bledsoe most certainly had one of the worst seasons of his career. The restructuring of his contract virtually insures the Drew will be the field general this season. Drafting Losman is a long term investment and in no way will improve this year's product. However, the removal of Gilbride and his inflexible system is likely to help. Additionally, an improved O line (see below) could enhance the QB position. The addition of Sam Wyche as QB coach is a plus. Must have improvement here, seems likely that will happen.

At wideout, the loss of Peerless Price was painfully evident. Eric Moulds was hampered by injury all season. Josh Reed, after a slow start, came strong on and put up numbers comparable to most other #2's. The addition of 1st round pick Lee Evans and his above average speed will surely help here. He looks mature and skilled enough to contibute right away. This will push Josh back to #3 where he should excell (as a number 3 WR, he is significantly better than the opposition's nickel or dime back). Definite improvement at WR.

Its hard to imagine improving on a guy who ran for over 1,000 yards with torn rib cartilage and a fractured bone in his leg. Nonetheless, Willis McGahee could make things hard on opponents, especially as a change of pace to Henry's bruising, physical style. And both in the backfield at once could present problems to any defense. RB was a stong point to begin with and can only be better.

At tight end, Mark Campbell has shown signs of becoming a solid contibutor. The rest of the bunch is a bag of footballs. However, UCFA Jason Peters at 6'4" and 328 lbs. with 4.9 speed is an intriguing addition. Draftee Tim Euhus is a receiving TE with suspect blocking ability. Status quo here unless one of the bunch steps up a notch.

The much maligned offensive line, in my opinion, usually gets an unfair rap. First, the coaching has been basically nonexistant for the last two seasons. Secondly, Gilbride's scheme put these guys into positions that destined them to failure. Finally, the staff seemed to be unwilling to put the best players on the field (ie. Sullivan on the sidelines while Pucillo got knocked on his a** every other play). Despite all this, they seemed to gel towards the end of the season, especially in run blocking. The removal of over-rated and perpetually whinning Ruben Brown is probably a plus at this point in his career. Chris Villiaral adds a hard working journeyman who seldom makes mistakes or penalties. The big factor here, however, could be the hiring of Jim McNally as O line coach. He is widely considered to be the one of, if not the, best in the business. I suspect that Mike Williams will blossom under his tutelage and the whole line will benefit. Significant improvement in the O line is likely.

Offensive scheme/coordinator. With Gilbride gone, improvement is a given. New offensive coordinator Tom Clements is a Mularkey disciple and they will work well together. They have promised a more run based, physical offense. This is a better fit to the skills and abilities of this team. Huge improvement here.

To sum it all up, offensive improvement was obviously Job 1 in Buffalo this off season. Personell improvements will not be the solution as they were minimal. More likely, a coherent scheme that fits the makeup of the team and better coaching (especially on the line) is where the Bill's have placed their bets. If this works or not, reamains to be seen, but I think it's likely.

 

Are the 2004-05 Bill's an Improved Team?

Part Two: Defense

Last edition we discussed the offense, this time, let's take a look at the defense.

Obviously, the Bill's Defense finished last season second overall in the league. You wouldn't expect a lot of tinkering here, and that is exactlty what has occured. The Bills pretty much stood pat on defense and will rely on several young players stepping up for improvement.

Perhaps the only significant change on "D" occurred when Antoine Winfield bolted in free agency. As expected, some team came through with a boatload of money and the Bills barely made a cursory attempt to retain his services. Instead, they went after a free agent themselves to plug the hole in the personna of ventran Troy Vincent. A solid CB with a nose for the ball. Won't hurt us in coverage, not as strong in run support, but has a few more take aways to his credit than Winfield. The rest of the backfield remains pretty much intact with a stiff competition shaping up at free safety. The Bills need someone to step up here.

The linebackers are the strength of this defense and all 3 starters return for another season. The recent signing of Jason Gildon provides quality depth and some flexibility in schemes (3-4 with Posey inside). Other than that, depth is an issue here and again, the Bills are looking to the younger players to elevate their play and fill the void.

On the line, stalwarts Pat Williams and Sam Adams return. Draftee Tim Anderson will help with depth. Aaron Schobel is a rising star in the league and look for the Bills to try to sign him long term prior to his contact expiring at the end of the season. At the other end, the Bills need Ryan Denny (or the position) to improve.

Jerry Gray returns as Definsive Coordinator. The loss of Dick LeBeau, though not critical, hurts some. I'm big on consistency and with both the players and coaches on year three of the "system", I expect big things.

All in all, the Bills defense was and is a solid unit. If some younger guys can step it up, it could be great. No matter what, they need to do a better job of getting off the field on third down. That was the only thing preventing them from being dominating last season.

 

 

Well, wasn't that a tough and heartbreaking way to start the season. 

  Let's not go over the pain in any great detail.  Let it suffice to say that that game wasn't lost on the last play. The game was lost much earlier.  A makable and missed FG would have left the game tied. Manage to get one in the endzone from the 3 yard line after an interception and you win.   Moulds doesn't fumble within sight of the goal line and you have another FG that would leave the game tied.  This wasn't last year's losers (as the infamous Leo Roth says-more on that later).  I saw a QB in control of himself and the gameplan and who, most importantly, was protected enough to remain standing all day long.  I saw running backs who combind for 100 yards agains one of the biggest and best front lines in the NFL.  I saw Eric Moulds return to full strength.  I saw a defense that has the potential to be dominating.  I also saw a team that has not quite yet learned how to win.  A loss is a loss, but there were many  positives that came out of this game.  However, one would never know that if Loe Roth was their only source of information.  Thankfully, there are other writers that have some intelligence and ability that seems to elude Mr. Roth.  Does this guy even watch the games?  Does he know a football from a cantaloupe? Why does he think that cliches and sophomoric euphonisms constitute good sportswriting? More importantly, why does the D&C continue to pay a guy of dubious talent and lack of insight and furthemore put his dribble on the front page?   Anyway,  despite the outcome, the Bills have some good things to point to. They also have a substantial amount to work on and correct.  Both attempts at "trick" plays were disasterous. Taking care of the football needs work.  Although penalized 2 times less that the Jags, a  couple of those penalties were at the most critical of times and cost dearly, some work is needed there.  All in all, a decent effort that, unfortunately, ended in a manner less that acceptable.  Take the positives, put the rest behind you and get ready for the Raiders.

Three weeks into the season the Bills find themselves winless and struggling
for answers. Stupid penalties (often at critical junctures) dropped balls, slips,
misreads and poor choices have conspired to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory over and
over again. A case can be easily made that penalties and/or mistakes cost the Bills wins in
each of these first three games. But that's a topic for discussion later. There have been many
theories put forward to what the problems are. Ranging from talent (or lack thereof) to a
rookie coach. I, for one, am convinced that they have beaten themselves more than have have
been beaten primarily due to their propensity to make mistakes and take penalties.
Why then, does this continue to happen?

I think the answer is in complacency, not on the field, but in the locker
room, at practice and on the sidelines. Complacency in the fact that the Bills over the last 4 to
5 years have allowed a "culture" to develop that allows mistakes to be downplayed and glossed
over. This is not solely a Mike Mularkey thing, nor a Gregg Williams thing. It began long
before their tenures and is further evidenced by the fact that veteran players are making as many
if not more errors than rookies.

Whatever the dynamic, a culture has become entrenched at One Bills Drive
that unintentionally condones mistakes. Players are never taken to task on their
errors, words like "we have to clean this up" and "we work on it in practice every day"
are tossed around. It is all well and good for coaches to be on the players side, give them
respect and treat them like "men". But, at least in Buffalo, this has developed into a situation
where players know that no matter how badly they screw up, there are few if any repercussions.
Take yesterday as an example. Joe Burns, a 3 year veteran, takes a blocking in the back
penalty on a punt return. One of the more stupid penalties you can make. As the camera pans
to the sideline, we see Joe laughing with and elbowing a teammate. Not a coach in frame, not
a care in the world that he just cost his team 10 yards and who knows what else. Where
was Bobby April? Why was he not in this guy's face? Why does Mike Williams continue to miss
block after block, yet continues to start? Where is anyone on the staff when London
Fletcher kicks the ball between downs, or body slams a RB after the play? Are they afraid that
they may hurt someone's fragile psyche? Bill Parcells has been seen (more than once)
be-rating a player on the sideline after a mistake. He has also been known (more than once) to
send a player packing who doesn't understand that dumb mistakes are unacceptable. Do you
think this may also send a message to the rest of the lineup? In Buffalo, errors are accepted
with a shrug, a pat on the back and a "try to do better the next time".

If Mike Mularkey doesn't soon realize that only drastic, daring and
immediate action can change this "culture", the Bills are doomed to endlessly repeat this pattern
of mistake after mistake, loss after loss.

Another win!  Take 'em anyway and anytime you can.  But, just what does
beating Arizona on
Sunday prove.  That we can beat up 98 pound weaklings?  That we can create
victory in
weather that the other guys can't handle?  That we have found out what it
takes to win and
will only get better from here?  That even a blind squirrel finds and acorn
once in a while?
 

Week  7

 


The truth lies in some combination of all of the above.  By once again
beating a weaker
opponent, especially a team that has lost 17 straight road games, the Bill's
have at least
proven that they are not at the bottom of the barrel.  It was a game you had
to win and the
Bill's came out and got it done.  Yes, the weather played a role, as it
should at home, and it was the same conditions for both teams.  Other than
those
obvious conclusions, what else can we infer from yesterday's  victory.

There were some subtle things in yesterdays game that may be an indicator
that things are
improving.  One, we only committed 7 penalties.  A quick check of yesterday's
games shows
that the average per team was somewhere around 8.  If we can continue to
hold that line,
only good things can happen.  Two, Willis McGahee is getting better by the
game.  Yesterday,
I saw few of the mistakes he was making in the last two games.  Three, our
special teams
were very special.  On a day when field position was all important, they
time and time again
gave us what we needed both ways.  Four, coaching.  Using Bannan as a
pulling guard and
Adams as a battering ram showed that they are looking for ways to improve
and shake things
up, especially in the red zone.  Yesterday it worked to perfection. Five,
the defense,  for the
second week in a row, basically stoned the opposition in the second half,
the adjustments
are not just working, they are dominating. 

The Bills have a long way to go before consideration as legitimate.  Once
again, the table has
been set.  Now can the Bills sit down and enjoy the dinner.   Next week the
Jets come to
town off a Monday nighter.  A good chance to take another step.

 

Week  8

 

Ok.  The Bills have now won 3 of their last 4 and improved their record to
3 and 5 at the midway
point.  Does this mean that they can contend for a playoff spot?  Maybe,
though highly unlikely.  They
would have to go minimum 6-2 over the last 8 and more realistically 7-1 to
even entertain hope.
However,  a respectable record is now within reach and they must continue
to improve in order to
set the stage for next season.


What has contributed to this sudden resurgence?  Several things:


    Willis McGahee - he has provided a spark that was previously missing.
Three consecutive 100 yard
    games go a long way towards improving the offense.


    Drew Bledsoe - he has benefited greatly from the improved running game
and no longer HAS to
    make plays for the Bills to win.  Additionally, in the last two games,
he has shown vastly improved
    footwork and has avoided the sack even when protection breaks down.  He
has even run for
    positive yardage a couple of times.


    Cut down on penalties and mistakes - in the last two games, the Bills
have dramatically decreased
    the number of penalties and at the same time, managed to keep the ones
they do commit from
    occurring at inopportune, critical moments.  There is a noticeable
decrease in mental mistakes.


     Coaching - using Justin Bannan as a pulling guard and Sam Adams as a
goal line TE show that
     they understand they have a problem and are willing to think out of
the box to find solutions.
     So far, it is working and offensive production and efficiency is up.


      Inspired play by the defense - haven't allowed a 100 yard rusher this
year.  For the 3rd
      consecutive week, basically shut down the opposing offense in the
second half.  Holding on
      third and long.  A tough, tough defense, now 2nd in the NFL.


      Special Teams - this unit has truly become "special".  Excellent
coverage.  Returns that give the
      offense great field position.  Punts OB at the one.  What more can be
said about this group.


  There is still plenty of work to be done.  Clock management is a huge
issue that need some attention.
But, all in all, the Bills have shown marked improvement over the last 3
games and if they can
continue, who knows?
 

Week 8

Another win! Take 'em anyway and anytime you can. But, just what does beating Arizona on Sunday prove. That we can beat up 98 pound weaklings? That we can create victory in weather that the other guys can't handle? That we have found out what it takes to win and will only get better from here? That even a blind squirrel finds and acorn once in a while? The truth lies in some combination of all of the above. By once again beating a weaker opponent, especially a team that has lost 17 straight road games, the Bill's have at least proven that they are not at the bottom of the barrel. It was a game you had to win and the Bill's came out and got it done. Yes, the weather played a role, as it should at home, and it was the same conditions for both teams. Other than those obvious conclusions, what else can we infer from yesterday's victory. There were some subtle things in yesterdays game that may be an indicator that things are improving. One, we only committed 7 penalties. A quick check of yesterday's games shows that the average per team was somewhere around 8. If we can continue to hold that line, only good things can happen. Two, Willis McGahee is getting better by the game. Yesterday, I saw few of the mistakes he was making in the last two games. Three, our special teams were very special. On a day when field position was all important, they time and time again gave us what we needed both ways. Four, coaching. Using Bannan as a pulling guard and Adams as a battering ram showed that they are looking for ways to improve and shake things up, especially in the red zone. Yesterday it worked to perfection. Five, the defense, for the second week in a row, basically stoned the opposition in the second half, the adjustments are not just working, they are dominating. The Bills have a long way to go before consideration as legitimate. Once again, the table has been set. Now can the Bills sit down and enjoy the dinner. Next week the Jets come to town off a Monday nighter. A good chance to take another step.

 

 

Week 9

 

After a couple of weeks of teasing us with improved footwork, decision making and overall play, Drew Bledsoe last night regressed into the pitiful, hopless QB that we have come to know over the last season and a half. His reads were non existant, his throws extremely poor, his decision making pathetic and his overall play just plain miserable. He telegraphed every throw, not hard when the only receiver that he looked for was Moulds. He consistently missed easy throws (bounced a flanker screen, threw behind Moulds on a simple slant for an INT), misread the D (note to Drew, if there is a linebacker between you and the receiver, you can't throw it through him), and more often than not, looked confused and held the ball way too long. If there is one thing (other than the officiating) that I can't figure out in the NFL, it is the reluctance, no, failure of coaches to pull a QB who is struggling badly. Just how much worse could your backup be? Could Shane Matthews have played any worse than Bledsoe last night? I think not. The only thing I will say in Drew's defense is that the game plan stunk just about as bad as he did. When the opponent has both starting CB's out, a WR playing nickel back and 8 or 9 guys in the box and you continue to run inside, I think it is safe to say that the Bill's brain trust was more like brain rust! Come on. You simply have to test that secondary if for no other reason than to get the LB,s off the line of scrimage. Does anyone on the Bill's staff know what a screen pass is? The only positive from last night is that the Bill's special teams continue to be very special. Johnathan Smith's punt return for a TD was the 3rd ST touchdown this season. The Bills contine to rank high in kick coverage, in fact, if I'm reading the stats right, they are #1 in KO coverage and near the top of the list in punt coverage. Anyway, back to the crux of the matter. This season is effectively over from the playoff standpoint, but has a long way to go from the development and set up for next year standpoint. It is time for Mularkey and company to bite the bullet, tell Bledsoe to have a seat and put all of their time and effort into getting #1 pick J.P. Losman ready for the future. Wasting more time on Bledsoe is good money after bad.

Week 11

 

Finally! A win on the road!  And not just a win, the Bills throttled what
many believe to be a pretty
good Seattle team.  That 38-9 win is what is known as a good old fashioned
a** whippin.

In the last  two weeks, the Bills have regained the respectability they lost
at the hands of the Patriots that
infamous Sunday night.  After dispatching the Rams at home, the Bills made
the difficult cross country
trip to Seattle and decimated the 1st place Seahawks.

The tone for the day was set on the opening kickoff when Seattle showed
their fear of the Bills return
game by kicking OB.  Given the ball on the 40, the Bills went no huddle and
punched their opening
drive into the endzone.  It was all downhill from there.  Willis went over
100 yards for the 5th time,
Bledsoe (despite 3 horrible interceptions) passed for 275, they converted
3rd down at 60%, held the
league's leading rusher to 39 yards and made few mistakes and penalties on
their way to providing
Mike Holmgreen with his worst coaching loss ever. A complete rout.

The only negative on the day was the loss of Travis Henry with a broken leg.


Now that the Bills have climbed out of the 0-4 hole they dug themselves, are
they in playoff contention?
The answer is a cautious yes.  The next 4 games are against opponenets whose
combined record is
11-33.  They finish against a strong Pittsburg team in a game that likely
will have no meaning or
consequence for the Steelers.  9-7 is not out of the range of possibility
anf there is a shot at 10-6.
However, in the AFC, it looks like 9-7 will get you naught and 10-6 will
require tiebreaker help.  So,
the playoffs are a remote possibility.  However, a 9-7 or 10-6 record sets
up a run for next  season and
continues the maturation process, so it is essential for the Bills to strive
for that mark.
 

 

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